During our Drupal Introduction training we show the usage statistics of Drupal core. But since there is no longer a graph of the Drupal core statistics on drupal.org, we make our own. If you like statistics, like me, there is excitement in this graph since the release of Drupal 7.
The statistics of Drupal 6 became familiar. A steady growth which doubled the number of Drupal 6 sites every 9 months, the periodic bumps in the numbers during the Christmas and the summer holidays. But in December 2010 something happened; Drupal 7 entered the arena. After an initial step the growth of Drupal 7 was (disturbingly) low, roughly equal to the decline of Drupal 6. In July 2011 this slow ramp transformed into a steep rising curve. Since then the number of Drupal 7 sites doubles every 3 months! Which is 3 times as fast as Drupal 6. Amazing! Is this due to a high adoption rate of Drupal 7 in the market, is it the popularity of Drupal SaaS like Drupal Gardens
One month ahead is easy, but what about two years from now? will Drupal 7 continue to grow? Will it be a steady growth like Drupal 6 or will the growth slow down due to a changing position in the market. I've extrapolated the Drupal 7 curve and visualised the two scenario's. If we assume a release cycle of 3 years, I predict that by early 2014 there will be between 700 000 and 1.1 million Drupal 7 sites.
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As far as I know, sites on Drupal Gardens do not count in Drupal.org statistics, so all that installations actually are normal standalone sites.
Right, Drupal Gardens does not report its core and modules (yet). We both figured we don't want to hammer drupal.org with individual site data and did not want to inflate numbers in unfair ways. So if you add up the Drupal Gardens sites as well, it is a much bigger number :)
What's the most exciting is that the growth of Drupal 7 is mostly new sites, it doesn't cannibalize D6 (much).
You should put an aggregate graph on top of it and show the sum total growth of Drupal!
What happened in July? Views module release?
Views RC1 was released on June 17th. But whether this was the trigger is difficult to say from the numbers. I asked around, but all Drupal shops I contacted were early adopters. From other contacts in early 2011, I know that potential Drupal users were monitoring the status of contrib modules too. It is not unlikely that Views RC1 triggered the Drupal 7 growth.
This graph would not be here without:
read who is responsible: http://drupal.org/project/update_status
and the announcement: http://drupal.org/node/124187
The D5 numbers are not accurate at all as it was a standalone module not built into Drupal core. The D6 and D7 numbers are better but we do not know the percentage of sites which disabled the update status feature. So the graph is mostly accurate just the total numbers are wrong :)
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